ICI Turkish Export Climate Index March Results Were Announced

• 15.04.2019
• News

Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Export Climate Index that is the leading indicator measuring the activity conditions of Turkish manufacturing industry in the main export market realized in the level of 52,3 in march. March index pointed out for a improvement harmonized with strong and near-term trends.

The improvement was resulted from the compensation in the slowdown indications in the Europe by the demand which has gained strength in Middle East markets. Growth in UAE and Saudi Arabia gained strength. While the economical activity in USA is slowing down compared to the previous month, it is increasing in a powerful speed, the activity in China has increased in the fastest speed observed since June 2018.

The March 2019 results of Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Export Climate Index that is the leading indicator measuring the activity conditions of Turkish manufacturing industry in the main export market were announced. According to data announced as separated from the seasonal effects which all figures measured above 5.0 which is the threshold are pointing out to the improvement in export climate and all figures measured below 5.0 are pointing out to the deterioration, ICI Turkish Export Climate Index which was measured as 52,3 in February maintained the same improvement level in March and realized as 52,3. The index pointed out an improvement harmonized with strong and near-term trends received from the export markets of manufacturers.

Export conditions of Turkish manufacturers were significantly improved in March. The improvement was resulted from the compensation in the slowdown indications in the Europe by the demand which has gained strength in Middle East markets. Also an improvement was realized at the end of the first quarter of the year in line with the growth in China.

UAE and Saudi Arabia supported this general improvement.

Two countries where economical activity experienced the fastest increase in March was Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. The growth in both countries gained acceleration. These two countries constituting approximately 3,5% of Turkish manufacturing industry export market supported the general improvement in export climate. In return, the indicators showing the slowdown in the demand in Germany which is the biggest export market of the manufacturers continued. Even though the economic activity maintained the improvement, the growth in the slowest level of the last six year with the decrease in the manufacturing production. Slowdown in other regions of Europe was observed. While the manufacture volume of England did not change in March, the economical activity in France was realized with a decrease in three month of four. Indications pointing out that the growth is refreshed again in other economies. Manufacturing increase in Spain and Holland gained acceleration compared to February.

Economical activity in USA is still strong and there is an increase in China.

Economical activity in USA decelerated compared to the previous month but continued to increase with a strong speed. Increase of the activity in China which is the second biggest economy of World in the fastest speed in March observed since June 2018 pointed out that there have been recovery indications in the demand of this country. Slowdown observed in the China demand in the latest period had a partial impact on the slowdown in majority of the regions in Asia. Therefore, recovery of the growth is a positive indicator for global trade. On the other hand, China market constitutes approximately 1% of export of Turkish manufacturing sector.

While the economical activity in the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India) economies recorded growth, the developing markets exhibited a better performance compared to the developed markets generally in the end of the first quarter of 2019.

Andrew Harker, Deputy Director of IHS Markit, who evaluated ICI Turkish Export Climate Index, said that: The improvements experienced in the end of the first quarter of 2019 showed the importance of geographical diversification in Turkish manufacturers’ export markets. While the slowdown received from Europe continued to exist in March, this gap was filled by Middle East markets with the acceleration of the activity in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. If the indications of the improvement in the demand in China turn out to be permanent and help global trade to be recover, Turkish manufacturers can face with more positive demand table compared to the west economies in addition to the strong maintenance in Middle East.