The November Results of ICI Turkish Export Climate Index Were Announced

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Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index which measures the operation conditions in the main export markets of Turkish manufacturing industry recessed to 48.9 in November and pointed out to a deterioration in the demand conditions of reporters for the first time in the last five months. The deterioration in the export climate was resulted from the recession in the Europe where the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic caused new restrictions. 

Even though the recovery in demand conditions of Germany which has a share for 9 percent out of Turkish manufacturing industry export volume, the deterioration shown by the demand climate in other European markets prevailed over the contribution of Germany. Economic activity in Italy, France, Spain and Greece fell sharply. The UK entered a recession zone. Contrary to the view in Europe, economic activity in the US improved strongly and the realized at the highest rate since March 2015.

November 2020 results of Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index which measures the operation conditions of Turkish manufacturing industry in the main export markets were announced. All figures measured over 50,0 which is the threshold value in the index point out to improvement while those measured under 50 point out to deterioration.

Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index which was measured as 51,2 in October recessed to 48,9 in November and pointed out to a deterioration in the demand conditions of reporters for the first time in the last five months. The deterioration in the export climate was resulted from the recession in the Europe where the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic caused new restrictions. 

Economic activity in Italy, France, Spain and Greece fell sharply. Decline rates increased compared to the previous month, due to the implementation of curfews. UK entered into contraction zone in the middle of last quarter. The moderate recession recorded in the production put an end to four-month expansion trend. The recovery in demand conditions of Germany maintained its existence which is different from the general trend in the Europe. Economic activity increased for the fifth month in a row; however, the increase rate was experienced in the lowest speed of the period. Germany which has a share for 9 percent out of Turkish manufacturing industry is the largest market for Turkish goods. On the other hand, the deterioration experienced in the demand conditions of other European markets prevailed over the contribution of Germany. 

USA showed a strong recovery while Middle East has a complicated outlook

Contrary to the view in Europe, economic activity in the US improved strongly and the realized at the highest rate since March 2015. Canada where the production of manufacturing industry increased at a rate close to that of October took a place among the countries where economic activity considerably increased. 

Middle Eastern region showed a complicated outlook in November. Economical activity in United Arabian Emirates which is the largest export market of manufacturers in the region recorded the first decrease of the last six months with a slight recession. Economical challenges maintained their existence in Lebanon. On the other hand, while the growth rate increased to the highest level of the last 10 months in Saudi Arabia, production increase was observed in Egypt and Qatar. After USA, the strongest production increase rate in November was recorded in Taiwan where the growth rate increased to the highest level since July 2014.

Andrew Harker, Economy Director of IHS Markit who evaluated the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkish Export Climate Index expressed that: 

“Different trends were observed in the main export markets of Turkish manufacturers in November. Demand conditions were weakened in the great majority of the Europe which was caused by the new restrictions resulted from the second wave of Covid-19. On the other hand, USA where the strong recovery continued realized the highest rated growth among the countries followed within the survey scope. Manufacturers will be hoping for the European authorities to take control of the virus swiftly and pave the ways for the economy without losing any time and join to USA with the growing trend.

ICI Turkey Export Climate Index (News Bulletin) Attach