ICI Türkiye Export Climate Index for September Released

• 08.10.2021
• News

Measuring the operating conditions in the key export markets of the Turkish manufacturing sector, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index posted 54.7 in September, thereby pointing to another marked improvement in demand conditions in export markets. This was despite the index dipping from 55.9 in August as the rate at which the climate strengthened eased for the third month running.

In the eurozone, rates of expansion in business activity softened in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands and Greece. The UK saw a further slowdown in the pace of growth, the fourth in as many months. The US, meanwhile, registered the weakest increase in business activity for a year, though continued to see output rise. Strong improvements in demand conditions were seen through much of the Middle East. Qatar posted the strongest rise in output. There were signs of deteriorating demand conditions in Egypt and Lebanon. And there was ongoing disruption in a number of Asia-Pacific markets. 

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index, which measures the operation conditions in the key export markets of the Turkish manufacturing sector, announced the results of the index for September 2021. In the index, the figures above the 50.0 no-change mark signals an improvement in the export climate, while the figures below signals deterioration.

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index posted 54.7 in September, down from 55.9 in August and signalling a substantial improvement in demand conditions in export markets. This was despite the index dipping from 55.9 in August as the rate at which the climate strengthened eased for the third month running. There were further signs of demand growth softening at the end of the third quarter, following surges in activity in a range of key export markets earlier in the year as COVID-19 restrictions were loosened.

Expansion in business activity softened in the Eurozone

In the eurozone, rates of expansion in business activity softened in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands and Greece. Germany, which is the single most important export market for Turkish manufacturing firms, saw output increase at the weakest pace since February, albeit one that was still marked. Similarly, the UK saw a further slowdown in the pace of growth, the fourth in as many months. The latest rise was the softest in the current seven-month sequence of expansion. The US, meanwhile, registered the weakest increase in business activity for a year, though continued to see output rise markedly in September. 

Strong improvements in the Middle East

Strong improvements in demand conditions were seen through much of the Middle East at the end of the third quarter. Saudi Arabia saw non-oil output increase at the fastest pace in four months, while the UAE completed a full quarter of strong expansions. Furthermore, Qatar posted a rise in output that was the strongest of all the countries covered by the report and the second-fastest since the respective series began in April 2017. On the negative side, there were signs of deteriorating demand conditions in Egypt and Lebanon. There was ongoing disruption in a number of Asia-Pacific markets as a result of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The sharpest reduction in output in September was seen in Vietnam, but falls were also recorded in Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines and Myanmar.

Commenting on the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index, Andrew Harker, Economics Director, IHS Markit, said:

“Some easing in the rate of improvement in export conditions was inevitable following the strong growth rebound seen earlier in the year, with the climate now improving at a still marked, but hopefully more sustainable pace. All of the principal export markets for Turkish firms remain in growth territory as the final quarter of the year gets under way. Although parts of the Asia-Pacific region continue to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there are signs of downturns easing off as infection rates start to moderate.”