ICI Turkey Export Climate Index for April Released

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Measuring the operating conditions in the key export markets of the Turkish manufacturing sector, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index rose to 56.0 in April, above the 50.0 no-change mark for the third month running. It pointed to a strong improvement in demand conditions in export markets, and one that was the most marked since February 2018. The strengthening seen in export climate in April was the result of significant improvements in economic activities in many major export markets.

The US recorded a sharp and accelerated expansion of business activity in April, with the rate of growth among the most marked globally. Germany, which is the largest single destination for Turkish manufacturing exports with 10 percent, posted a significant increase in overall activity, while the UK saw rapid recovery, marking the highest expansion of output since October 2013. Italy and France posted a slight increase in overall activity. Spain also saw the highest growth rate of the last two years.

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index, which measures the operation conditions in the key export markets of the Turkish manufacturing sector, announced the results of the index for April 2021. In the index, the figures above the 50.0 no-change mark signals an improvement in the export climate, while the figures below signals a deterioration.

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index rose to 56.0 in April from 54.7 in March, marking the third month in a row over 50.0 no-change mark. The reading signalled a strong improvement in demand conditions in export markets, and one that was the most marked since February 2018. The strengthening export climate reflected marked improvements in activity across a range of key export markets in April

The world’s largest economy - the US - recorded a sharp and accelerated expansion of business activity in April, with the rate of growth among the most marked globally. The US accounts for around 6% of Turkish manufacturing exports, behind only Germany (10%) and the UK (7%).

Improving demand conditions were also seen in Europe, primarily driven by strong manufacturing performances. Germany posted a marked expansion of overall business activity, while the UK saw its recovery gather pace as output increased to the greatest extent since October 2013. Italy and France posted modest rises in activity, with the latter seeing output expand for the first time in eight months. Growth in Spain reached the fastest in just over two years, while manufacturing production in the Netherlands rose at the sharpest pace on record.

Positive demand trends in the Middle East

In the Middle East, demand trends were generally positive apart from pockets of weakness in Egypt and Lebanon. Solid improvements in business activity were registered in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

Although most monitored countries posted increases in output during April, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted negatively on some of those economies where case numbers have been rising or have remained high, for example in Brazil and Kenya. Aside from Brazil, there was rising activity in the other BRIC nations, but growth in India slowed amid a renewed wave of the virus, raising the possibility of demand weakness there in the months ahead.

Commenting on the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index, Andrew Harker, Economics Director, IHS Markit, said: “Demand conditions appear to be strengthening across a wide range of markets at present, providing more opportunities for Turkish manufacturers to sell goods abroad. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a concern though, and still has the potential to hit demand and cause logistical issues as new waves of infections come in.” 

 Encouragingly, the top three export destinations for Turkish manufactured products are all growing rapidly. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a concern though, and still has the potential to hit demand and cause logistical issues as new waves of infections come in.”

ICI Turkey Export Climate Index (News Bulletin, April 2021) Attach