The ICI Türkiye Export Markets Climate Index dips to 51.6 in December

• 08.01.2026
• News

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing Export Markets Climate Index dipped to a five-month low of 51.6 in December. The reading signalled only a modest monthly strengthening in demand conditions in export markets, but one that extended the current period of improvement to two years.

Rapid expansions in business activity were recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while only Qatar posted a reduction in output in the Middle East. Business activity continued to increase solidly in the US. Germany, the UK and Italy posted only modest increases in output in December, while France and the Netherlands recorded declines. Spain was the main bright spot with a marked and accelerated pace in business activity. The sharpest increase in output was registered in Thailand, while Mexico recorded the sharpest fall in output. 

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Türkiye Export Markets Climate Index, which measures the operating conditions in the key export markets of the Turkish manufacturing sector, released the results for December 2025. The index figures above the 50.0 no-change mark signals an improvement in the export climate, while the figures below signals a deterioration. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing Export Markets Climate Index dipped to a five-month low of 51.6 in December from 52.4 in November. The reading signalled only a modest monthly strengthening in demand conditions in export markets, but one that extended the current period of improvement to two years.

Rapid expansions in business activity in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

The Middle East was again a key growth region in the final month of 2025. Rapid expansions in business activity were recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, with increases also seen in Egypt and Lebanon. Of the Middle East economies covered, only Qatar posted a reduction in output during the month. Combined, these six economies account for around 7% of Turkish manufacturing exports.

Demand conditions are mixed over in Europe

The US meanwhile is the destination for 6.5% of goods sold internationally, making it the second-largest single export market for Turkish manufactured products. Here, business activity continued to increase solidly, but at the slowest pace since April 2025. Over in Europe, demand conditions were more mixed. Germany, the UK and Italy posted only modest increases in output in December, while France and the Netherlands recorded declines. Spain was the main bright spot, seeing business activity rise at a marked and accelerated pace at the end of 2025. 

The sharpest increase in output is registered in Thailand

Of all the economies covered by the report, the sharpest increase in output was registered in Thailand. Other parts of Asia such as India and Singapore also posted marked expansions in activity in December. At the other end of the scale, Mexico recorded the sharpest fall in output at the end of 2025, continuing a trend of marked declines seen through much of the year. Among the other economies to signal a drop in activity were Canada, Romania and South Africa.

Commenting on the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing Export Markets Climate Index, Andrew Harker, Economics Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Taken overall, the export markets climate for Turkish manufacturers improved modestly at the end of 2025. That said, as was the case through much of the year, demand conditions were quite uneven across different parts of the world. Middle East was a source of growth, but those firms supplying European markets faced a more challenging demand climate. Manufacturers will be hoping for a more even growth picture in 2026.”

You can find attached the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Export Markets Climate Index December 2025 reports.